Carlos Gonzalez: Park-Friendly Numbers?
As always I will try to make this week's column entertaining, stall-friendly, and provocative.
Four of you may remember that two weeks ago an award-winning newspaper published my first column. In it I suggested an off-season maneuver to the Toronto Blue Jays front office concerning one Jose Bautista. The two guys that finished the column may remember that I promised a similar analysis for the Cincinnati Reds and Joey Votto. Well, after two weeks and a Cardinals plunge in the standings, I just don't care anymore. I've moved on. But before I get into that, apparently Nota Bene notices if you do a two-part story without, you know, a second part. Lesson learned. So, to summarize:
●I compare Votto to three players; Jeff Bagwell, Mark Teixeira, and Frank Thomas
●I chose those player because they, like Votto, broke into the Majors at 22-23, played as a power-hitting first basemen, contended for or won the Rookie of the Year, and posted an MVP-winning or MVP-calibre season in their third full year.
●So I was probably going to suggest a long term deal to avoid arbitration. All four players have similar strengths, and I'm predicting dominance until 32 barring injury. Power first-basemen tend to stay off the training table until about 33-34.
●I would offer $11m a year over the next four with a club option. I again base this on the famous Ryan Howard arbitration case, but consider the recent Ryan Zimmerman deal and the economic downswing. Votto has significantly better statistics than Zimmerman, and plays better baseball than Howard in every respect except raw power.
●Votto would give up three years of arbitration and some free agency years.
Done. Now we get to Carlos Gonzalez. It looks as though he no longer has a shot to catch Albert Pujols for the NL home run lead, and thus no longer has a shot at the coveted Triple Crown (a league leader in HR, AVG, and RBIs). But had he won it, I may have made a bad life choice. I probably would have walked onto the stage at the award ceremony, taken the award and the microphone, and then drunkenly rambled something to the effect: "No. Cut the music. This is Pujols' award. I'm just sayin' ...<incoherent slurring>... just not right. And then Barry Bonds stole three of his... <incoherent slurring>... and now the *bleeping* Coors Field...<tackled by rent-a-cops>.
So what would lead me to attempt a booze-soaked Kanye impression? The Coors Field Effect. So without further ado, let's look at Gonzalez's stats for 2010.
|
Field |
AB |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
K |
BB |
|
Home |
273 |
19 |
4 |
25 |
72 |
.392 |
.439 |
.766 |
47 |
25 |
|
Away |
275 |
14 |
4 |
7 |
35 |
.287 |
.320 |
.444 |
79 |
14 |
I'm sorry, but that's preposterous. If you double his home statistics, he has the best baseball season since Ruth. Maybe ever. These are only current as of September 22 (they'll get better). First, let me say that his away stats are not bad, and I am convinced that he can play professional baseball at a competent level. However , his average, on base, and slugging are all artificially inflated by his home run total at Coors Field. He has at least fifteen hits that are probably outs in another park.
But here is what surprised me. I think that I have not given Gonzalez enough credit. I think there is a second layer to this story, and it comes from his strikeout-walk ratios. He has a roughly 2-1 ratio at home which is not great, but an abysmal 5-1 ratio on the road. That's not park effect. That's weird. Gonzalez has two more seasons to work with. Let's focus on those ratios with a home-away split.
|
Field |
2009 K |
2009 BB |
2008(Oakland) K |
2008 BB |
|
Home |
27 |
12 |
43 |
4 |
|
Away |
43 |
16 |
38 |
9 |
Two things: 1) I don't find the 2008 splits statistically relevant because he took so few walks; and 2) the 2009 splits have nearly identical ratios. So what happened this year that elevated his home game to Ruthian levels? I have a theory, and Dustin Pedroia should hide his MVP trophy from History. Gonzalez, like Pedroia, uses a different plate approach at his quirky home park to produce "artificial" results. I have chosen a few interesting split statistics from Pedroia's 2008 MVP season. Why not all of his stats? They're not relevant, I don't want to spend the time talking about them, and I want to make the statistics say what I want them to say. Stop being rational.
|
Field |
2B |
HR |
AVG |
SLG |
BAbip |
|
Home |
35 |
7 |
.344 |
.519 |
.356 |
|
Away |
19 |
10 |
.309 |
.468 |
.306 |
I should tell you two things before we analyze. BAbip stands for Batting Average for Balls Put In Play. It is designed to see how "lucky" players are. Everyone has seen a guy line out four times and then hit a swinging bunt for a single. But luck evens out, and the league average hovers between .290-.310.
Now, the first thing that I notice about Pedroia's splits is that he was an All-Star second baseman on the road, and a very good hitter. His home stats say he's an MVP candidate. I have argued, and argue here, that Pedroia hits an ungodly amount of doubles off the Green Monster. Beyond that, I think his approach at the plate changes at home. I think he tries to hit fly-balls off that 37-foot two inch wall, and turn lazy fly-outs into doubles. This, in turn, creates an unexpectedly high BAbip. He's stealing hits. Watch him swing for the fence with his back knee on the ground sometime. He torques his body to create an uppercut to leftfield. I don't see him do this on the road.
Now I don't blame him for this. It's smart. It helps his team win baseball games, and I don't think it decreases his value. I do think it makes him more valuable to the Red Sox than any other team, but I also don't want to take anything away from a player that discovered a quirky advantage at his ballpark because he still has to aim a baseball off a wooden bat in a general direction at a general trajectory. That's hard.
Gonzalez's BAbip is .398 at home and .377 on the road. That tells me that Gonzalez has benefited from some good luck all season, but also that his home BAbip is significantly higher to suggest he has taken advantage something at the mile-high Coors Field. Frankly, I think he has become more selective at the plate in reaction to a new found confidence, and I think Pujols should win the MVP. Join me next time when we explore why exceeding your word limit is also grounds for your "editor" to "stop making you lunch everyday."







